Yield forecast of forage oat due to climate change in the northwest of Chihuahua, Mexico

Daniel Villazón Bustillos, Héctor Osbaldo Rubio Arias, Jesús Manuel Ochoa Rivero, Celia De la Mora

Abstract


Climate change can affect crop productivity in a particular region. The objective was to identify the variability in the production of dryland forage oat (Avena sativa L.) using a stochastic function and analyze their relationship with temperature and precipitation as affected by sceneries of climate change in the northwestern region of Chihuahua, Mexico. It was obtained 13 years of statistical information (2001-2013) at meteorological stations in the municipalities of Bachiniva and Namiquipa, using information on July, August and September months, where it is concentrated about 80% of annual precipitation. Information was taken from HADCM3 (2001) model that describes the behavior of climatic variables under pollutant emission scenarios A2 and B2 on the years 2050 and 2080. The changes in climate variables in the short term (2050) was taken and it is expected to increase both in temperature and precipitation, allowing in the case of Bachiniva improve the production of oats from 3.57 t/ha to 8.11 t/ha under pollutant emission scenario A2. In the long term (2080) a permanent increase in temperature is expected, and no matter how much precipitation improve, this will cause in the current oat producing regions fail to develop crops for harvest.


Keywords


stochastic function; Avena sativa L.; dry matter production

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DOI: https://doi.org/10.21640/ns.v9i19.953

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