Keywords
riesgo de inundaciones
peligro
vulnerabilidad ambiental
Veracruz
México
modelo de riesgo clásico
modelo de riesgo ajustado
cambio de cobertura
uso del suelo
áreas urbanas
coeficiente de correlación de Pearson
cuerpos de agua
agua
cambio climático urban flooding
flood risk
hazard
environmental vulnerability
Veracruz
Mexico
classic risk model
adjusted risk model
land use
cover change
urban areas
Pearson’s correlation coefficient
bodies of water
water
climatic change
How to Cite
Abstract
Due to their frequency and magnitude, urban floods affect different regions of the world. For this reason, several methodologies integrate information on hazard (H) and vulnerability (V) using a «Classic» Risk (R) model for risk analysis. However, this combination of variables generally overestimates the risk in places where the frequency of flooding is low. In this work we propose a model that we call «Adjusted Risk» (AR) that integrates values of urban proximity (p) to bodies of water, as a tool to assess the risk of floods. The comparison between the R and AR models showed a higher efficiency of AR to reproduce the frequency of floods for 210 cities in Veracruz, while R overestimated the level of risk in cities with low frequency of floods. The correlation values associated with the frequency of flood events for a period of 45 years (1970-2015), allow to establish the utility of the AR model to evaluate the risk of urban floods when using different scales of analysis.
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